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Return to conflict in Sudan could cost in excess of US$100 billion

A new report by Frontier (Europe) investigating the potential costs of renewed conflict in Sudan was launched today.  The report was commissioned by the Aegis Trust and is published less than 50 days ahead of the landmark referendum on independence for Southern Sudan.  The security situation in Sudan remains unstable and the referendum could trigger an escalation of violence in the country. 

The analysis indicates that increased violence following the referendum could cost more than US$100 billion in total, with possible costs to Sudan itself of over US$50 billion, to neighbouring countries of over US$25 billion and to the international community in excess of US$30 billion.  The report recognises the difficulties in estimating possible future costs and analyses the potential impact of four alternative scenarios – low, medium, and high conflict scenarios and a peace scenario.  In line with these scenarios, the report models four different paths for economic growth and humanitarian and peacekeeping expenditure.

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