CfD Auction Simulator

Calculating default results…

1. Competitive field

Describe your view of each competitor's minimum acceptable strike price. The simulator assumes each competitor bids at its realised minimum acceptable strike price. A lower competitor bid is worse for your prospects: P25 is pessimistic, P50 central and P75 optimistic from your perspective.

Project	MW	Pessimistic P25 £/MWh	Central P50 £/MWh	Optimistic P75 £/MWh

2. Government auction

Mode of operation

Projects are ranked by bid. Each accepted project resets the provisional uniform clearing strike to its bid, and the budget impact of all provisional winners is recalculated at that clearing strike.

Reference price (£/MWh)

Effective net load factor across the pot (%)

Final Government budget (£m/year), modelled using P25, P50 and P75 values.

P25 final budget (£m/year)

P50 final budget (£m/year)

P75 final budget (£m/year)

Budget impact = max(clearing strike − reference price, 0) × awarded MW × 8,760 × effective net load factor.

3. Your project

Capacity (MW)

Your bid (£/MWh)

Your minimum acceptable strike price under different project-cost outcomes. These draws affect margin/headroom, not the bid itself.

Optimistic (P25) minimum acceptable strike (£/MWh)

Central (P50) minimum acceptable strike (£/MWh)

Pessimistic (P75) minimum acceptable strike (£/MWh)

Bid premium vs P50: —

4. If you lose this auction

Assumed change in the next-auction clearing strike (%)

Pessimistic (P25)

Central (P50)

Optimistic (P75)

These percentages apply to the simulated clearing strike in this auction without your project. For example, +5% assumes a 5% higher clearing strike in the next auction. The next auction is represented by this adjusted price, rather than a newly simulated auction.

Results at your selected bid

Your bid

—

Probability of award

—

Clearing strike if awarded

—

Mean uniform clearing strike, conditional on award

Headroom if awarded now

—

Clearing strike minus your simulated minimum acceptable strike price, across wins

Expected headroom across outcomes

—

Weighted average of winning now and waiting if you lose

Expected MW awarded

—

Bid trade-off

Bid £5/MWh lower

—Probability of award

Bid £5/MWh higher

—Probability of award

Bid strategy

Your bid → estimated probability of award. The red point is your exact selected bid.

Your bid → expected strike-price headroom, including the future opportunity when you lose.

Hover or tap either chart to see the bid, award probability and expected headroom together. Tap the same point again to clear; use arrow keys when a chart is focused.

Competitive threshold

This section shows the relevant Government/auction threshold distribution for the selected mode.

Simulated bid-stack distribution

Think of thousands of possible auctions drawn on top of one another. In each draw, projects are sorted from the lowest bid to the highest; the horizontal axis is cumulative capacity and the vertical axis is bid price. Darker cells are places where those simulated bid stacks pass more often. The chart describes uncertainty in the competitive stack - it is not itself a probability-of-award chart.

More frequent simulated stacks Your bid Government WTP range Awarded-capacity cut-off

Run a simulation to see the distribution of simulated bid stacks.

How sensitive are your results to competitor bids?

This analysis shows how your probability of winning and expected headroom change if each competitor bids 10% more aggressively, holding all other assumptions constant. It helps identify which competitors have the greatest influence on your auction outcomes.

The 10% reduction applies to each competitor separately. Changes to expected headroom also reflect the adjusted future-auction opportunity if you lose.