The Syrian conflict: estimating the costs after 5 years

The Syrian conflict: estimating the costs after 5 years

The total costs of the war in Syria have been estimated at around US$275 billion so far, with real GDP per head some 45% less than it would have been without the conflict. These are the key findings of a report launched today by World Vision International, co-authored by Frontier (Europe).

The report also documents the impacts of the Syrian conflict on three neighbouring countries: Jordan, Lebanon and Turkey, which have collectively hosted over 4 million refugees from Syria. Lebanon has been the worst affected, with real GDP per head reduced by almost 23%. In Jordan, the impact on GDP per head is estimated at around 12%. The effects on Turkey, by contrast, are estimated to have been limited. This  mainly reflects the size of the Turkish economy, and the fact that it has been better able to connect refugees to formal economic activity

Frontier carried out a careful econometric modelling exercise to estimate the impact of the conflict on national income. The findings of the report also lend support to recent calls for a programme of large scale development and reconstruction as a necessary counterpart to conflict resolution, in order to reverse the damage inflicted to date, and to alleviate the suffering of the region’s populations.

Frontier (Europe) regularly advises clients on matters of public policy, mediation and international economics.

For more information, please contact Goran Serdarevic on [email protected], or call +44 (0)20 7031 7000.

 

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