Supporting the NHS frontline

Supporting the NHS frontline

We looked at the factors driving demand for A&E, from the availability of GPs to the quality of local primary care, to help the NHS better deliver this vital service.


What drives demand in A&E. With so many factors at stake, how can NHS England best deliver its frontline service?


We used an econometric approach to investigate the factors that drive demand for A&E.

We considered ‘supply-side’ levers such as the availability of GP out-of-hours services and Minor Injuries Units, social care capacity and the quality of local primary care. We also took into account ‘demand-side’ drivers such as the weather and the day of the week.


Our work provides a model for the NHS to estimate A&E demand and the impact of changes in the local system.