Gradually increasing the proportion of e-fuels in petrol and diesel will lead to only a minor impact on the price of the fuel mix

In addition to being used in pure form, e-fuels can be blended with fossil fuels in any ratio. This means that in the future, vehicles with internal combustion engines could be run on a mixture of fossil fuels and e-petrol or e-diesel.

On behalf of UNITI Bundesverband EnergieMittelstand e.V., the German energy industry association, we have analysed the long-term development of fuel prices at the filling station. The results show that the expected price changes of a fuel mix with a gradually increasing share of e-fuels over time are small:

• In the initial phase of the market ramp-up of e-fuels, the higher cost of e-fuels is hardly noticeable due to the low blending rate.
• The price of the fuel mix is expected to remain within a moderate range as the share of e-fuels increases until 2045. According to recent external studies, this stability is mainly due to significant cost reductions in the production of e-fuels through economies of scale and technological advances.
• After 2045, further reductions in production costs could lead to lower prices for e-petrol and e-diesel.
• A key condition for moderate price development is the modulation of energy taxes for green fuels, for example based on greenhouse gas intensity, as proposed in the draft reform of the EU Commission.

Click here to download the full study.