Artificial Intelligence (AI) assurance is a new and rapidly emerging market, aimed at building confidence in AI systems by providing evidence that it is safe. 

To support the healthy growth of the AI assurance market and maximize the UK’s position as a leader in this field, the Department of Science, Innovation and Technology (DSIT) commissioned Frontier Economics to estimate the size of this market, understand its barriers, assess its future growth potential and identify and discuss possible policy areas to assist the future growth of the AI assurance market. 

Our economic analysis of the AI assurance market was published as part of DSIT’s wider paper, ‘Assuring a Responsible Future for AI’. This paper identifies key challenges facing the market, future needs, and actions the UK government is taking to meet these needs, as well as synthesizing the findings from our AI assurance market study. 

The potential for the UK AI assurance market 

We estimate that the current contribution of AI assurance activities to the UK economy is £1.01bn. The UK’s AI assurance activities surpass those of other countries (accounting for the size of the countries’ economy). 

Even though the UK market appears larger than key comparators, we find that it is below its potential. Interviewed stakeholders suggest that the estimated supply lags behind possible demand for AI assurance, and both demand and supply are below their potential. 

Given the AI assurance market characteristics and economic theory, we identified four main market barriers that support this finding: Information asymmetries; positive externalities; AI market uncertainty; coordination failure. 

The future of the AI assurance market 

We estimate that if the market continues to grow at a similar rate to that observed in the last five years, it has the potential to reach £6.53bn by 2035 (GVA), even if many of the current market barriers persist. 

We have identified five policy areas that can help address some of the identified market barriers and assist with the higher growth rate in the market: 

Click here to read the full article Economic Assessment of the AI Assurance Market