Frontier, in collaboration with BMG Research and Frazer-Nash Consultancy, conducted the final evaluation of the Future Flight Challenge (FFC) for UK Research and Innovation (UKRI).

FFC is a £300 million investment programme launched in 2019, which comprises £125 million committed by the public sector under the Industrial Strategy Challenge Fund and £175 million co-invested by industry. The programme is designed to build the aviation ecosystem needed to speed up the introduction of electric sub-regional aircraft, advanced air mobility vehicles and drones into the UK.

Our approach

We developed a theory of change in collaboration with the FFC to outline how its inputs and activities would generate outputs, outcomes, and impacts.

Given the complexity of the FFC’s operating environment and its wide-ranging impacts, we applied a theory-based approach using contribution analysis to assess its added value.

A mixed-methods approach was used, drawing on five key evidence sources: (1) an industry survey of future flight sector organisations (181 responses), (2) five case studies based on 18 in-depth interviews with stakeholders, (3) FFC monitoring data, (4) other secondary sources, and (5) a rapid literature review.

Throughout the report, results from the baseline, interim impact, and final impact surveys are compared where possible to observe trends over time.

Key findings:

·       Accelerated innovation: Advanced technologies like drones and eVTOLs brought closer to commercial viability through focused support and demonstrations. 71% of consortia members surveyed reported an increase of the technology readiness levels of their projects.

·       Stronger collaboration: FFC united industry, government, and regulators, fostering partnerships and rapid knowledge sharing. Collaboration expanded across the wider industry and the UK, demonstrating a wider network effect driven by the Challenge.

·       Increased investment: Significant boost in public and private R&D funding, though long-term investment remains a challenge for SMEs. The Challenge leveraged £217 million in industry co-investment, surpassing its initial target by 24%. Nearly half of survey respondents reported an increase in R&D spending due to their engagement with the Challenge.

However, ongoing challenges need to be addressed to sustain progress, strengthen the UK's international position, and gain competitive advantages in the global future flight market. Regulatory delays, unclear commercial pathways, and limited physical and digital infrastructure still hinder full-scale deployment.

Moving forward:

To unlock the full potential of the UK’s wider future flight sector, we identified lessons learnt, for example:

·       More focused investment in high-impact areas and integrated real world demonstrations could accelerate progress toward operational and commercial readiness.

·       Regulatory clarity and flexibility is essential, with stakeholders calling for frameworks that evolve alongside technological advancements.

·       Greater data sharing, and clearer pathways for commercialisation are necessary to ensure sector-wide growth.

·       Investment in critical infrastructure, including vertiports, charging stations, and improved airspace management, will be essential in enabling the next phase of growth in the UK’s future flight sector.

·       Maintaining collaboration networks and preserving expertise gained through the Challenge will be critical for sustaining momentum.

·       A government-led vision and strategic roadmap setting up a clear pathway towards the commercialisation and industrialisation of future flight technologies are needed to provide direction for the sector and attract further investment.

Click here to read the full report Final evaluation of the Future Flight Challenge