Meeting the European Union’s climate neutrality target by 2050 will require a broad energy mix, not only renewable electricity but also synthetic fuels in liquid and gaseous forms. A critical component in producing these fuels is carbon dioxide (CO₂), which can be captured from many processes in industry and energy production.
The European Commission’s Delegated Act 2023/1185 sets out the regulatory framework for which CO₂ emissions can be used to produce synthetic fuels. Eligible sources include biogenic CO₂ (from biological origins) and certain industrial emissions, provided these emissions are covered by effective carbon pricing. Fossil-based CO₂ from industry will remain eligible until 2040, while CO₂ from fossil power generation is eligible until 2035.
A new study commissioned by the eFuel Alliance and the eNG coalition assesses today's availability and the future potential of large CO₂ point sources across the EU-27 that could supply feedstock for synthetic fuel production. The study also analyzes how current regulations may limit usable CO₂ supplies and explores the impact if process-related industrial emissions were eligible.
Key Findings
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Current CO₂ Emissions: In 2022, major industries and power plants emitted around 828 million tonnes of CO₂ annually that could be used for synthetic fuels under current rules.
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Projections for 2050: Emissions are expected to decline to about 661 million tonnes per year, largely due to reductions from gas-fired power plants, refineries, and the iron and steel sector. However, biogenic CO₂ emissions are projected to increase by roughly 50% as parts of an increased use of bio-based fuels. These biogenic emissions, totaling approximately 368 million tonnes, will remain eligible for synthetic fuel production.
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Unlocking Additional Potential: Process-related industrial emissions, currently excluded from eligibility, account for about 130 million tonnes per year. Including these emissions could add the potential to produce an additional 36 billion litres (diesel equivalent) of synthetic fuel annually by 2050—significant given the forecasted synthetic fuel demand of 41 to 84 billion litres.
Regional and Sectoral Highlights
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Today, large clusters of CO₂ emissions exist in regions with dense industrial activity, such as Western Germany, the Netherlands, Belgium, Southern Poland, Northern Italy, and parts of Southern France and Spain. Biogenic CO₂ emitters are dispersed across the EU with significantly lower volumes of individual point sources than the traditional industries.
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By 2050, changes in production methods and fuel sources will shift emission patterns. For example, Sweden’s growing biogas sector will increase its share of eligible CO₂ emissions, while emissions from the iron and steel sector in countries like Germany and Austria are expected to decline. Process emissions are expected to remain on a similar level compared to today.
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While the emissions of biofuels, bioliquids and biomass producers will increase substantially, industrial activities in the cement, chemical, iron and steel and power generation are expected to remain the largest CO₂ point source emitters by 2050.
Implications for Policy and Industry
The study provides crucial insights for policymakers, regulators, and industry players seeking to scale up synthetic fuel production. Understanding the location and volume of eligible CO₂ sources can inform regulatory adjustments and market designs to support Europe’s clean energy transition. Broadening eligibility to include industrial process emissions beyond 2040 could facilitate Europe’s synthetic fuel supply.
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Director
Manager
Consultant
05 September 2025
