Britain’s energy system remains exposed to global fossil fuel markets, with oil and gas still accounting for around three-quarters of primary energy consumption.
Recent geopolitical shocks, from the war in Ukraine to conflict involving Iran, have reinforced concerns around both energy prices and security of supply, leading to calls to increase production of North Sea oil and gas.
If current policies were changed to support increased production there are a broad set of impacts to consider.
- On prices, the answer is largely no. Oil and gas prices are set in international markets, so even an optimistic view of the increase in UK production that is achievable would do little to bring down bills.
- On resilience there could be some limited impacts through reduced import dependence, in particular for gas. For oil, given consumers require refined fuels, increased oil production does not translate directly into greater resilience.
As a result, any case for more North Sea production should focus more on broader potential impacts on growth, jobs, tax revenues and emissions, as well as on the UK’s position as an international climate leader, which we will consider in a second briefing.
Author
Executive Director
Director
Senior Principal
01 April 2026
