A cost-effective way to unlock Germany’s offshore wind potential

Germany’s journey to climate neutrality by 2045 will depend not only on how much offshore wind capacity it can build, but on how cleverly that energy is integrated.  

Frontier’s recent report, commissioned by AquaVentus, finds that combining offshore wind generation with offshore hydrogen production could significantly cut system costs while strengthening energy security. 

Making the Most of Offshore Wind 

The analysis looks at how offshore sector coupling, linking offshore wind farms with offshore electrolysers and hydrogen pipelines, can complement traditional overplanting approaches to make the most of Germany’s North Sea potential. 

Two offshore wind scenarios were modelled to 2045: 

  • 70 GW, matching Germany’s statutory target; and 

  • 55 GW, a more conservative path reflecting wake-effect constraints. 

Each scenario tested three configurations: 

  1. Baseline – current build-out approach with equal turbine and cable capacity, electrolysers onshore. 

  1. Overplanting – more turbine than cable capacity, electrolysers still onshore. 

  1. Offshore sector coupling – more turbine capacity plus offshore electrolysis and hydrogen pipelines alongside electric cables. 

Key Insights 

1. Offshore sector coupling delivers the biggest savings. 
It cuts net integration costs by €1.7 billion per year in the 70 GW case and €0.5 billion in the 55 GW case — roughly double the savings of electricity-only overplanting. 

2. Smarter infrastructure makes the difference. 
Although offshore electrolysers are costlier, using hydrogen pipelines lowers overall transport costs as it allows to reduce costly electricity connections. The flexibility to export electricity or hydrogen further reduces curtailment and boosts utilisation — especially valuable for sites far from shore. 

3. The advantage holds under many future conditions. 
Even when offshore electrolysers are assumed to be twice as expensive as onshore units, offshore sector coupling remains the lowest-cost option. 

Unlocking the Potential 

To turn this opportunity into reality, Germany will need to: 

  • Expand designated areas for offshore electrolysis beyond the current 1 GW limit, 

  • Allow mixed offshore power-and-hydrogen connections, 

  • Give such integrated projects legal priority, and 

  • Create mechanisms to de-risk investment. 

With these steps, offshore sector coupling could become a cornerstone of a smarter, more resilient energy transition, helping Germany tap the full potential of its North Sea wind resources.