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By 2034, qualified GPs in England will deliver just 70% of all appointments at surgeries, down from the 90% who did so as recently as 2015, the analysis forecasts. Patients will increasingly see another type of health professional, such as a nurse, physiotherapist or pharmacist, when they visit their practice, Frontier Economics predicts.

It estimated that on current trends the number of avoidable cancer diagnoses is due to rise from 184,000 to 226,000 a year by 2040 because of population changes. Between now and then, 3.7 million people will be diagnosed who would have not developed the disease if it had not been for the four known main risk factors – smoking, drinking, obesity and UV radiation. Those cases combined will cost the UK £1.26tn, Frontier believes.