Global fuel crises: the new normal

The last few years suggest that fuel crises should no longer be treated as rare interruptions to an otherwise stable system.

They are increasingly a structural feature of the global economy. Gas markets had only begun to rebalance after the shock from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and truncation of Russian pipeline gas supplies into Europe when renewed conflict in the Middle East once again tightened supply.

The wider lesson is that energy insecurity is no longer driven only by geology (in case of fossil fuels), weather (in case of solar and wind energy) or temporary operational failures. It is increasingly about geopolitics, maritime chokepoints, access to upstream resources and the willingness of states to use energy dependence as leverage.

That matters because Europe’s recent experience is not an isolated episode. It is part of a broader shift towards a world in which the probability of repeated disruption is higher and the duration of stress events is longer. Even when additional LNG supply capacity is being built (especially in the US), global gas balances can still tighten sharply if one major route, one producing region or one political relationship comes under strain. In this sense, energy crises are increasingly becoming systemic rather than exceptional.

With this in mind we discuss how Europe could develop a strategic response that recognises the new geopolitical situation, rather than engaging in short-term political activism whenever geopolitical tensions tighten energy supply to let energy prices rise above levels perceived as politically difficult. 

Click here to read the full bulletin: Global Fuel Crisis