Updated Frontier analysis, published today, finds that England is on track to achieve a 'smoke-free generation' - defined as an adult smoking prevalence rate of 5% or below - by 2040.
This could be achieved as soon as 2031 if more recent rapid declines in smoking prevalence are maintained.
The study, funded by Philip Morris Limited and prepared independently by Frontier, updates and extends previous analysis drawing on more recent English smoking prevalence data and local level figures. Other key findings are that:
- Smoking prevalence has fallen from 27% in the mid-1990s to 14.5% in 2018. A material part of this comes from a switch to e-cigarettes: around 1.7 million former smokers have converted fully to e-cigarettes in England.
- There is widespread variation in smoking prevalence across the country. In Kingston-upon-Hull, 26% of adults smoked in 2017 compared with 6% in Richmond upon Thames. More deprived areas tend to have higher smoking prevalence rates.
The ambition to go smoke-free by 2030 was set out by the Government in its 2019 Green Paper: Advancing our Health: Prevention in the 2020s
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